Manny Pacquiao v Keith Thurman: Fight Odds and Betting Preview – July 21, 2019

In the early hours of Sunday morning – around 04:30 UK time – the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA will host one of the most interesting and intriguing fights of 2019 so far as veteran star, Manny Pacquiao takes on the unbeaten, and youthful American, Keith Thurman for his WBA ‘Super’ Welterweight title.

Veteran Pacquiao has little left to prove at the very highest level, and will enter the ring at the weekend for the 71st time in his professional career, with the only ever eight-division world champion already having his name alongside some of the greatest pugilists ever to grace the ring. But the fire still burns strong within the Filipino’s soul, and a victory over the unbeaten and long-standing holder of the WBA Welterweight title in Keith Thurman would be another exceptional performance in Pacquiao’s long and illustrious career.

Thurman, who is ten years younger than his upcoming opponent, has 29 wins from 30 fights, with 22 victories by stoppage, and seven wins by decision. The other remaining bout was a no contest due to both fighters having a serious head clash early in the fight.

Thurman has been in with some of the very best in his weight division by seeing off the likes of Shawn Porter, Danny Garcia and Josesito Lopez in just his last three fights alone, but it is this bout with the legendary Pacquiao that would be the marquee name on the American’s record if the 30-year-old from Florida can get the job done.

Pacquiao, who began his professional career all the back in 1995 has a record of 61 wins, with 39 victories inside the distance, from 70 fights, with seven losses and two drawn contests. The Filipino star was last seen in the ring back in January with a comfortable points win over Adrian Broner at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.

So, who wins this fight? Will it be the wily, experienced campaigner In Pacquiao who will try to outbox and outfox his opponent reign supreme once again, or can the relatively inactive in recent years, Thurman have the punching power to see off his rival following hand and elbow injuries to stop the legendary campaigner.

In this betting preview, we will look at some of the key betting markets in the bout to offer up the best prices available and predict who will come out on top in this highly anticipated clash.

Match Betting

Since this bout was announced back in May, the betting has been very close between the fighters, with Thurman the initial choice as favourite by the bookmakers. However, the weight – if you pardon the pun – of money for Pacquiao in recent weeks has seen the market change in the Filipino’s favour.

The best price available at the time of writing on a Pacquiao victory can be had with Black Type, who offer 3/4 on victory number 62 for the 40-year-old legend. Thurman can keep his winning thread with victory here, and Betway offer 13/8 on the American to prevail. Considering the expected close nature of this fight, the Draw is definitely in play here and can be backed at the top price of 20/1 with SportingBet. It is also worth noting that some firms go as short as 14/1 on that outcome.

Method Of Victory Betting

This market offers some better odds on the outcome of the fight, but you must predict the winner and the correct method of victory, which is a little trickier. However, it does seem very likely that this fight will go the full twelve rounds, which does tend to clear the murky waters somewhat.

Pacquiao has gone the distance in all but two of his last 15 bouts and Thurman has gone the distance in his last three and averages nearly eight rounds per fight. The higher the quality of match-up in the lower weight classes the more likely a decision is, and we expect no different in this battle.

So, if our theory comes true, then the main focus of bets should be pointed towards either Pacquiao to win via a points decision or technical decision at 6/4 with Unibet, Coral. The alternative is a victory for Thurman by the judges’ scorecards can be taken with Betway at 11/5.

For information purposes, a Pacquiao win inside twelve rounds is available to back with Betway once again at 9/2, while a Thurman stoppage win can be had with Unibet and Betway at 11/2.

Will The Fight Go The Distance?

A very strong indication that this fight will go twelve rounds is in this market, with ‘YES’ being the short-priced favourite of just 4/11 with Sport Pesa and 10 Bet. For punters who believe this fight will end prematurely, then the 11/5 on offer with Betway is the best available on the market currently.

Conclusion

So, we’ve assessed the markets and discussed the merits of how long the fight will last, but who will come out on top?

The intangibles of this fight are that, has Pacquiao still got the required motivation at the very highest level under his ageing physique, or has Thurman still got the punching power following injuries sustained in recent times?

The honest truth is that nobody really knows until the fight takes place. However, I firmly believe that Manny Pacquiao is the man to be on in this fight. The Filipino fighter is akin to Peter Pan in boxing terms and can gain the victory in this fight via the judges’ scorecards.

Keith Thurman has talked plenty in the lead-up to this fight about finishing Pacquiao’s career with a victory here, but Pacquiao has too much class and experience to get caught and if Thurman telegraphs his power punches, ‘Pac Man’ will viciously counter as a southpaw, which could be the ultimate key here in a closely contested bout.