Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez v Sergey Kovalev: Fight Odds and Betting Preview – November 3, 2019
The months of November and December will provide some excellent boxing action with several of the sports’ most high-profile names in action.
This Sunday morning, with a start time of around 04:30am GMT will see Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez’s biggest bout of his illustrious career to date at light-heavyweight, against the dangerous, if not slightly ‘over the hill’, Sergey Kovalev, at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Event Date: November 3, 2019
At stake in this contest will be Kovalev’s WBO Light Heavyweight belt that he has held since February with a unanimous decision win over Eleider Alvarez. This victory was revenge for the 36-year old Russian, who was stopped by the previously unbeaten Colombian in their first bout. Kovalev then retained his belt with a dominating performance over England’s Anthony Yarde in Russia back in August. Kovalev stopped the plucky Londoner with an 11th round stoppage to the delight of the home crowd.
‘Krusher’ Kovalev has a professional fight record of 34 wins from 38 fights, with 29 wins inside the distance. The Russian has suffered three defeats in his career, with one bout ending in a draw. Kovalev has shared the ring with some of the best fighters in his weight classes, of his generation in recent years, and he must be given credit for taking this fight with ‘Canelo’, as it is very likely to prove to be a very difficult task to win.
‘Canelo’ began his extensive career at Welterweight (154lbs) in his native country of Mexico. The step-up to Light Heavyweight is an increase of around 20lbs for the superstar boxer, but it does seem to be a strange progression for Alvarez to completely miss out on the top class fights potentially available at Super-Middleweight for the time being.
Alvarez currently holds the WBA ‘Super’ Middleweight belt, which will obviously not be at stake this weekend. The defining fights of ‘Canelo’s’ career to date have been with Gennady Golovkin. The first bout ended in a draw, back in September 2017, but Alvarez claimed a unanimous points victory over the Ukrainian fighter, twelve months on. The Mexican has since had two further bouts against Rocky Fielding and Daniel Jacobs, with both ending in routine victories. Alvarez has a fight record of 52 wins from 55 fights, with 35 wins by way of knockout. Just the one defeat in his career, to Floyd Mayweather, with two draws.
So, who wins this fight? Will it be the wily, experienced campaigner In Kovalev who will try to use his extra height and reach to outfox his opponent, or will Alvarez have the necessary work rate and punching power to see off his rival following the obvious step up in weight class.
In this betting preview, we will look at some of the key betting markets in the bout to offer up the best prices available and predict who will come out on top in this highly anticipated clash.
By taking just a casual look at the betting for this fight, it is obvious to see that the bookmakers obviously believe that this bout will ultimately be a one-sided contest. The best industry price available on Saul Alvarez is just 1/4 with Ladbrokes and Coral amongst others, to gain win number 53.
Kovalev backers can head towards Betfred and Betway who offer 16/5 on the veteran Russian fighter, while the unlikely event that the bout ends in a draw can be taken with Betfred once again at 28/1.
Keys to Victory
This bout is intriguing for several reasons, but perhaps the key element to the bout is how Alvarez will cope against an opponent, who will have a considerable size – and likely weight advantage. Kovalev is naturally around two divisions bigger than Canelo, and this will be a factor in the fight. Kovalev, although potentially not the fighter he once was a few years back, is still an extremely dangerous one for someone jumping up two weight divisions from middleweight to light-heavyweight.
The Russian will have the height, weight, and reach advantage, is natural at the weight, and has recently shown he can carry stamina into the later rounds with his 11th round knockout of Anthony Yarde, so this is certainly no easy task for Canelo to overcome.
Canelo can win this fight by making Kovalev work to his plan. If the Mexican can get inside Kovalev’s jab by using his excellent head movement and stay out of the way of his power, then he can win comfortably. It takes a special kind of fighter to jump up two weight divisions and box a man of Kovalev’s size and stature, but Canelo is a special fighter, currently fighting at the peak of his powers, who is certainly capable of that.
Kovalev has also shown vulnerability in the past three years and Canelo’s team will know this (a big reason they have taken this fight on). Kovalev has won only four of his last seven bouts, and he has been stopped in two of these fights and hurt badly in the others (most notably to the body). So, providing Canelo uses all his experience that he has gained from fighting at the top end of the sport, against quality opposition, following the game plan set by his team, he has enough quality in his arsenal to be victorious, despite the weight and size disadvantage.
Method Of Victory Betting
This market offers some better odds on the outcome of the fight, but you must predict the winner and the correct method of victory, which is a little trickier. However, it does seem very likely that this fight will go the full twelve rounds in our view, which does tend to clear the murky waters somewhat.
Betway offer the standout price of even money (1/1) for Saul Alvarez to win this bout by decision, or technical decision, which is effectively after the full 12 rounds of the fight. We are of the opinion that ‘Canelo’ will not have the ultimate power to complete the job over Kovalev inside the distance, but he will have the necessary skills to get the job done on the judges’ scorecards. This is the strongest bet of the fight.
For information purposes, the odds for Alvarez to win inside the distance can be had with BetFred at 2/1, while a Kovalev win on points can be taken with William Hill and Coral at 9/1. Perhaps the Russian fighters’ best option to win is to beat his Mexican opponent by stoppage, and that option can be best taken with William Hill and Betfred at 6/1.
Will The Fight Go The Distance?
A very strong indication that this fight will go twelve rounds is in this market, with ‘YES’ being the short-priced favourite of just 3/4 with SportingBet. For punters who believe this fight will end prematurely, then the 5/4 on offer with Unibet is the best available on the market currently.
Our belief for this fight is that Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez will get the job done here, but it is likely to be tough going for the Mexican fighter in periods of the fight. The weight concession to Kovalev could well be difficult to overcome, but it is our suggestion that Alvarez can get the job done on points at the end of the twelve rounds. One thing is for sure, it is a contest that should not be missed for any boxing fan!
- Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez to win via Decision/Technical Decision at 1/1 with Betway.