Brian Ortega v Max Holloway: UFC Preview – December 8 2018
The highlight of UFC 231 will feature a title fight that was originally scheduled for July, earlier this year. With his health scare behind him, Max Holloway will now step into the ring against Brian Ortega and this time the world featherweight title will be on the line.
As UFC comes to Toronto on December 8, this is the highlight of the card for most fight fans and with two opponents who look to be evenly matched, this could be a tough call. Read on to see what the sportsbooks make of it and at the end of the preview we’ll see if we can pick our own winner.
In this market we have a clear favourite with Max Holloway heading the outright win market by some margin at odds of 10/13 with Ladbrokes. It’s a figure that leaves Brian Ortega available at 21/20 with Sports Interaction and while some sportsbooks show the two men to be much closer, the odds setters have clearly made their mind up here.
The tale of the tape shows that the two fighters are quite evenly matched in terms of age, height and reach and although Ortega is the one with the undefeated record, he comes in as the perceived weaker man.
In 13 fights to date, Ortega has won all of them and that’s a tally that stacks up nicely against the favourite Holloway who has 19 wins and three losses over a 22 match career. Experience could be counting against the Mexican in this market but when you compare those stats, there has to be some value in the outside bet.
Incidentally, the draw is on offer at 50/1 with Ladbrokes but that price seems to be right for what is an unlikely final outcome.
Other Betting Options
Some bookmakers, including Sports Interaction, have closed their prop bets ahead of this battle but there are options for those looking to add to, or look away from the straight result. As with any fight, one of the most common side markets involves Method of Victory and once again, Max Holloway is some way in front here.
Ladbrokes are currently the best option in this respect and they have Holloway to win by decision at odds of 5/2. Holloway by KO / TKO or submission is on offer at 19/10 and then we come to the different options for Ortega to win the contest.
It’s back to Ladbrokes once again who have the Mexican listed at 6/1 for the decision or 3/2 by KO / TKO or submission. There are some interesting numbers in there but can their previous records give us any pointers?
Of Ortega’s 14 victories, three have been by knockout, seven by submission and four by decision. Coming over to Max Holloway, the American has 19 wins, nine by knockout, two by submission and eight by decision.
Those are numbers that suggest we could go deep into this contest on December 8 and that brings us to the final available bet for the evening. Ladbrokes have a tempting figure of 31/20 on the fight going the distance while the odds on combat being stopped before the end stand at just 1/2 – also with Ladbrokes.
The list of markets is relatively small for this bout so there are fewer options for combining a parlay within the fight itself. This may change as the battle draws closer but there is some value in the selection that has been declared so far.
Holloway is the favourite and the more experienced fighter but we’ve seen a number of UFC / MMA upsets in recent times and it’s hard to overlook that impressive record of Brian Ortega. The Mexican known as T City may still be learning his craft but at odds of just above Even Money, he is a value bet and we’re looking for him to deliver when the roadshow hits Toronto on December 8.
The relative lack of KO decisions on either side might, however, suggest that this one has the capacity to go the distance and that’s another bet where the price (at 31/20) could well add up to a profitable evening in the Octagon.
Best Bets for Ortega v Holloway:
- Brian Ortega to win at 21/20 with Sports Interaction
- The fight to go the distance at 31/20 with Ladbrokes