Jon Jones v Alexander Gustafsson: Betting and Odds Preview – December 30 2018
It’s billed as Jones v Gustafsson II but we have to go back five years for the last time that these two battlers stepped in the Octagon to face off. September 2013 and UFC 165 was the occasion and now the two men are preparing for the long awaited rematch.
The fight takes place as the headline event of UFC 232 on December 30 so let’s look back at that previous contest before looking ahead to our betting options.
Jones v Gustafsson I
The original fight between Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson was the headliner for UFC 165 and was for the division’s light heavyweight championship. Both men came into the event with strong form and the betting was tight ahead of the first bell.
Ultimately, Jones came through with a unanimous decision over his opponent but the marking was very tight with two judges declaring a slender, one point advantage for the winner.
Much has happened in the intervening five years but can we expect a similar result this time around or is Gustafsson set for some overdue revenge?
Five years on from that earlier victory, Jon Jones is very much the favourite once again and you can pick up the rangy American fighter at best odds of 4/11 with Betway. It’s a figure that leaves Sweden’s Gustafsson available at 47/20 with Pinnacle Sports but is there any value in getting behind the outsider here?
Their respective records are quite similar but Jones edges the tale of the tape with 22 wins from 24 pro fights. In that time there has only been one defeat – by disqualification – and the remaining bout was declared a No Contest.
Moving over to Gustafsson and we find a man with 22 pro fights which have yielded 18 wins and four losses. That would be impressive in most contexts but it’s clear to see why he is the outside bet in this clash.
Other Betting Options
With around a month to go until the fight takes place, there are no additional markets other than the straight result. That will obviously change in the lead up to the battle and there should be some value attached when they do drop in.
That bout back in 2013 went the distance and while it was over five years ago, there are reasons to suggest that it could do so again. Jones has never been beaten inside the distance and it’s only happened to Gustafsson on one occasion so we could be going all the way once again.
As far as Method of Victory is concerned, Gustafsson’s 18 wins show 11 by knockout, three by submission and four by decision. Moving over to Jones, the tally, from 22 wins, reveals nine by knockout, six by submission and seven by decision.
Once again, those are stats that indicate that a decision could be on the cards but which fighter will deliver?
Head to head results are always important when you’re considering a bet on any event but Jones v Gustafsson I took place more than five years ago so should we really place too much emphasis on it? It’s true that Jones came as close as he ever has done to tasting defeat by any method other than disqualification so that could be an indicator as this rematch finally comes around.
Look out for those prop bets as we would be interested in taking an odds against price on the fight going the distance. Both men continue to look evenly matched and this could go all the way, as it did in 2013.
Form is strong on both sides but we’re looking at an upset here and if there is any value in the result market, it lies with Gustafsson and those 47/20 odds. 2013 was a long time ago but he’s the type of fighter that can push Jones all the way and revenge is on the cards at the climax of UFC 232.
Best Bets for Jones v Gustafsson II
- Alexander Gustafsson to win at 47/20 with Pinnacle Sports